Attributing Long-Term Sea-Level Rise To Paris Agreement Emissions Pledges

Future mean sea level rise (GMSLR) poses a threat to ecosystems (1), the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people (2) and World Heritage (3, 4) along the world`s coasts. The overall mean sea level has risen by about 20 cm since 1900, with an acceleration of flows of about 3 mm/year (5⇓-7). The main elements contributing to sea level change are the thermal expansion of the oceans, glaciers and ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, all of which contribute to current sea level rise in response to continued global warming (5). These contributors respond to warming on several time scales, from decades to centuries for glaciers and centuries to millennia for thermal expansion and ice caps (8, 9). PNAS [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1907461116] According to the study, the top five emitters would contribute to this expected increase, with China accounting for 10 cm to 2300 cm, followed by the United States with 7 cm, the 28 EU countries by 5 cm and India and Russia by 2 cm each. The study, conducted by researchers from Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), estimates how long-term sea-level rise by 2300 will be linked by past and short-term anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. “This is due to the long time scales that are involved in sea level rise and are not always fully appreciated outside the scientific arena, so it`s important to point this out again and again. “Much of the carbon dioxide we`ve emitted into the atmosphere will remain there for thousands of years,” said Clark, who is on the faculty of OSU`s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “Our carbon emissions this century are imposing on our planet not only a warmer climate, but also a higher sea level that will last for thousands of years.” The landmark Paris Agreement on climate change, adopted in December 2015, calls for global average temperatures to be well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and for efforts to keep the increase at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The agreement entered into force in 2016. To read the full study “Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges”, click here. Total annual CO2 emissions, including land use (GtC/year) (A), which. In response to historical warming trajectories, promised reductions in NDC emissions and zero GHG emissions after 2030, we estimate that: that the GMSLR will continue to increase by 43 cm (66% between 34 and 54 cm) compared to the 1986-2005 IPCC reference period 1986-2005 (Fig. 2 and Table 1) in 2300. . . .

About Paul Demuth

I am a freelance photographer and wedding photographer, working in London, Sussex and the south east. I have been working as a photographer for over 12 years and prior to that I worked as an image retoucher and photography manager. I work with business, disability organisations and charities offering lifestyle and corporate photography. I also photograph weddings, family celebrations, portraits, interiors and products.
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